Israel’s Election Count Shifts, but No Bloc Has a Clear Path

At 5:58 a.m., with 41.9% of ballot boxes counted, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc led 57 seats to 47 for the opposition, according to early figures. That count differs from the exit polls, which showed a tight race with no clear winner. The result is still incomplete: soldiers’ ballots and other votes cast in double envelopes have yet to be counted, so the seat totals may change. ^1,3

The 57-47 tally follows a night of changing predictions. Israel’s three main broadcasters initially put the blocs close to even, with Arab-led parties expected to win around 17 to 19 seats outside those camps. The Knesset has 120 seats, and a government needs support from at least 61 members. Likud, Netanyahu’s right-wing party, was expected to be the largest single party, but that alone cannot secure him another term. ^4,6,9

That 61-seat threshold leaves both sides facing a tough task in forming a coalition. Opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot’s camp may need support from Arab-led parties, but both major blocs have rejected a formal partnership with them. Political analyst Dov Waxman told Al Jazeera that Netanyahu could try to portray such support as illegitimate, making it harder for Eisenkot to form a government. Netanyahu, meanwhile, has called for a right-wing government and said it should not rely on Arab-led parties. ^1,4,8

Those talks will decide whether Netanyahu stays in office or Eisenkot can build a majority; until then, Netanyahu remains caretaker prime minister. The Central Elections Committee’s partial count is not final, and the remaining ballots could change the seat totals. Once the official count is complete, the parties will have to seek enough Knesset support to form a government. If talks fail, another election is possible. ^1,9,10